Perang Pecah. Public dicekokin narasi usang: security, necessity dan national interest. Perang ga hanya menghasil pemenang & pecundang. They also create beneficiaries (penerima manfaat). Pasti ada Governments, oil producers, defense industries dan aktor politics yang diuntungkan dari konflik.
Paradox perang menyulitkan; “the actors best placed to end it are among those with the most to gain from its continuation”.
Peace benefits ordinary citizens, small businesses, global supply chains and the planet’s climate trajectory. The beneficiaries of war are more concentrated.
Perang reshape politic domestic. Saat media meliput perang, every other topic fades. Baik intentional or coincidental, efek perang jelas: the national conversation changed.
Perhatian public Amerika terhadap Epstein files dan criticism of the Justice Department sontak hilang dari front pages. Berita perang mendominasi news cycle. Presiden Trump sangat diuntungkan.
Israel adalah The Most Obvious Strategic Beneficiary.
Benjamin Netanyahu memperingati ancaman bom nuklir Iran selama 30 tahun. Di United Nations General Assembly tahun 2012, Netanyahu menggunakan ilustrasi bahwa Iran semakin dekat memproduksi bom nuklir.
“By next spring, at most by next summer … they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage,” kata Natenyahu.
Program missile Tehran, ambisi nuklir, dan support ke militant groups Hezbollah, Hammas, dan Houthi (Ansar Allah) membentuk defense policy Israel. Selama beberapa dekade, Iran dipandang sebagai “most dangerous regional adversary.”
Kampanye militer menghancurkan infrastruktur militer Iran dan memperlambat Iran’s nuclear capabilities advances merupakan Israel’s long-term strategic goals. Weakening Iran has been a central objective of Israeli policy for decades.
“War Is Good for the Energy Market” bagi Produsen minyak. Perang Iran menguntungkan perusahaan Amerika, multinational energy firms dan commodity traders. Energy markets thrive on uncertainty. War creates exactly that.
Harga minyak tinggi & a Distracted West jelas menguntungkan Russia.
Sebagai salah satu exporter energy terbesar, Russia mendapat direct profits dari rising crude prices. Russia menetapkan kisaran harga $59 per barrel. Kenaikan harga minyak di atas level itu merupakan much-needed windfall bagi Moscow yang sangat membantu memperpanjang Perang Ukraine.
Tanggal 9 Maret, Presiden Trump membebaskan sanksi beberapa negara. Termasuk Russia. Higher oil revenues alone memperlunak tekanan terhadap Russia’s “shadow fleet” yang digunakan angkut minyak yang terkena sanksi.
A Strategic Opportunity diperoleh China. Sekutu Amerika di Asia kuatir perang panjang di Middle East akan menguras American weapons stockpiles dan military focus. Bila Amerika terjerat di Perang Teluk, kemampuannya menghalangi China di sekitar Taiwan akan melemah. Strategic distraction can be as valuable as military victory.
The irony of war trnyata Iran’s Hardliners merupakan salah satu beneficiaries dari Perang Teluk.
Di tengah eskalasi konflik, Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of longtime Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — dilantik sebagai New Ayatollah sehingga mampu mengkonsolidasi kekuatan di antara faksi garis keras.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) mengendalikan setengah dari export minyak Iran. Its engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya, telah menjadi kontraktor terbesar di Iran. Mengontrol construction, telecoms, agriculture dan energy.
Selagi foreign firms suka cita & perusahaan domestik berjuang, IRGC-linked entities menggunakan akses ke rute informal trade. Selain mengendalikan mata uang dan security networks to expand their dominance.
THE END
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